The recent political developments in Pakistan, involving the Establishment’s crackdown on Imran Khan’s political party Pakistan Tehreek-I-Insaf (PTI) have marked another watershed moment in the chequered political history of Pakistan. The Establishment in Pakistan is once again involved in breaking and making political parties. The developments are not unprecedented and follow a model. A charismatic political leader who commands legitimacy among the masses rises. The army or the Establishment becomes wary of the leader’s power. In order to protect their political power, they go after the leader, by breaking their political party and killing them.
Imran Khan’s Threat to the Establishment
Imran Khan and his party PTI pose a grave danger to the power of the Establishment. His supporters mostly come from the urban middle classes. This specific class has been historically a supporter of the Establishment. Khan thus ate into the support of the Pakistani army. The army views it as a zero-sum game— Khan’s increasing support is their loss.
Even though it was initially alleged that Khan came to power in 2018 because of the backing of the Establishment, he turned out to be dangerous for the Establishment. The differences came to the fore after the fall of Kabul. Khan refused the CIA’s requests to establish its bases in Pakistan for future operations in Afghanistan.
Pakistani Army has historically leaned towards the US. Immediately after independence, the Pakistani Army became a part of various defence and security treaties with the US. Further, the anti-Soviet war in Afghanistan also brought the Pakistani Army closer to the US. Similarly, post-2001 when the US launched its operations in Afghanistan, Pakistani Army’s support was crucial to the US.
However, during the recent withdrawal of the US from Afghanistan, the Pakistani Army was sidelined. Prime Minister Imran Khan took all the important decisions. The Pakistani Army felt threatened. After a few months, the opposition ousted Imran Khan from office through a no-confidence motion in April 2022. There were various accusations of US involvement in Khan’s ouster because the US had at various times publicly expressed its displeasure of Khan’s policies. However, these accusations have not been proven.
Also Read: Pakistan’s March towards Democratic Reform
Politically Motivated Corruption Charges Against Khan
After his ouster, the ruling government charged Khan and his family with various corruption cases. The government recently arrested him in these cases. His supporters took to the streets to protest the arrest. Later, Supreme Court of Pakistan had to intervene in the matter and the court released Khan on bail. However, during the protests, there were widespread incidences of violence in which several key army installations were damaged by the protesters.
The government alleges that Khan and his political party instigated their supporters to carry out violence. Khan and his party have denied the charges. However, the government arrested several key PTI leaders for instigating the violence. The courts released some of these leaders later but they have now either abandoned PTI or quit politics altogether. The army seems to have pressured these leaders to give up politics or face the consequences. Further, it is also a tactic to isolate Imran Khan and criminalize any kind of association with him.
The Establishment is trying people associated with the recent violence under army law. The government is also publicly talking about banning PTI. Several international human rights organizations have called upon the Pakistani government to try these people under civil law.
Also Read: Pakistan Crisis Explained – Looming Threat of a Military Coup
Establishment’s Move Against Khan Not Unprecedented
The Establishment’s attempt to break PTI and obliterate Imran Khan by accusing him of terror and corruption is not unprecedented in the history of Pakistan. There were at least two cases where a popular political leader rose and the Pakistani Army felt threatened. They either killed them or tried to obliterate their political parties. Sheikh Mujibur Rahman was arrested and his party banned while Zulfikar Ali Bhutto was killed.
Sheikh Mujibur Rehman
When Sheikh Mujibur Rahman emerged as a mass leader in the erstwhile East Pakistan, his party won a majority of the seats in the 1970 elections. He was about to take the charge of Prime Minister of Pakistan, but the Establishment was against him. The Establishment arrested him and banned his party and launched the infamous operation in East Pakistan that culminated in the liberation of East Pakistan and the formation of Bangladesh in 1971.
Zulfikar Ali Bhutto
Similarly, when Zulfikar Ali Bhutto emerged as a mass leader in Pakistan in the early 1970s, he threatened the Pakistani Army’s power. Pakistan Army’s chief, General Zia-ul-Haq staged a coup and arrested Bhutto on the charges of murder. After a lot of controversy, the court found Bhutto guilty in the case and subsequently sentenced him to death. They finally executed him in April 1979.
There is a standard model that the Establishment in Pakistan follows when it comes to the rise of popular political leaders. The Establishment either kills or politically obliterates any leader who threatens its power. It is still in the initial days of the process to make Imran Khan politically irrelevant in Pakistan, and it remains to be seen how the Establishment will deal with Khan.
