Pakistan Crisis Explained – Looming Threat of a Military Coup

Pakistan Crisis: struggle with terrorism, economy, and political Dispute – over 850 innocent lives lost in Q1 2023.

The South-Asian country is facing a perilous situation with a staggering toll of over 850 innocent lives lost to terror attacks in the first three months of 2023.
As the economy continues to struggle, with long-term allies like China refusing to provide bailouts and political disputes escalating, Pakistan finds itself at a critical crossroads. The judiciary is also not spared from the ongoing tug-of-war.

Now, the big questions are –

• Can Pakistan recover from its current economic catastrophe?
• Why terror attacks are on the rise?
• And is Pakistan on the route of another military coup?

The Economy in Shambles

Over a dozen people were killed as the crowd rushed to grab a pack of flour. Sadly, it’s not an isolated incident.

With inflation at 30% high – the highest recorded in five decades – the costs of essential goods have surged. But the situation only headed south, with Islamabad forced to remove subsidies as Pakistan’s financial support from the IMF dries out.

And all this is happening in a nation still trying to recover from last year’s flood, ravaging the country’s vast swaths in October. A climate catastrophe that killed 1700 people and cost the nation 15 billion USD in damages.

Read More: Pakistan Flood Puts Climate Injustice in the Spotlight: The Age of Catastrophe

On top of it, the currency is in a tailspin. But nobody is ready to help Pakistan bail out.

Why Nobody is Rady to Bailout Pakistan?

In the past, Pakistan has received significant financial aid from countries like UAE and Qatar, amounting to 24.4 billion USD over the last five years, and Chinese commercial banks have loaned over 30 billion USD. These bailouts were primarily driven by humanitarian, common interest, and economic reasons.

However, due to the government’s inability to fulfill previous promises, the countries are reluctant to help Pakistan.

IMF was another major lender of the South-Asian nation. But, the country finds itself caught in a catch-22 situation due to pressures from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to reduce subsidies and curb inflation. On the one hand, to address inflation, the government needs to provide subsidies, but on the other hand, if they cancel subsidies to increase revenue, it may lead to citizen protests.

But this delay in IMF’s bailout comes in contrast to its approval of a 15.6 billion USD loan for Ukraine and the United States’ decision to print 300 billion USD to save a bank in Silicon Valley.

It clearly shows that the priorities of IMF and Western countries are different – which does not include countries like Pakistan and Sri Lanka.

And while stuck in one of the worst economic catastrophes, terror attacks in Pakistan are also on the rise.

The Alarming Surge of Terror Attacks 

Terrorist attacks in Pakistan have been surging since the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan, and 2023 has been one of the deadliest years yet.

The devastating bombing in January, which marked one of the deadliest blasts in Pakistan’s history, is sadly not an isolated incident. Since then, several more attacks have resulted in loss of life and widespread destruction.

In Karachi, a police headquarters was targeted, resulting in the deaths of four individuals. In Balochistan’s Khuzdar district, at least two policemen were killed in a “remote-controlled blast,” and another attack in a crowded market in Balochistan claimed four more lives.

February alone recorded 58 terrorist attacks that killed 62 innocent civilians, including security personnel, civilians, and terrorists themselves, with 134 others injured. 

The situation again escalated on March 4th when the TTP targeted a mosque in Peshawar, claiming the lives of around a hundred people, including most police officers. Despite the government’s efforts, the TTP continues to defy authority, leaving the situation seemingly helpless.

These ongoing and frequent terror attacks highlight the persistent threat faced by Pakistan, with innocent lives being lost and communities being affected by violence and instability.

How is the Politics Further Worsening the Pakistan Crisis?

The government is stuck in a complex situation. The Shabbat Sharief government blames its predecessors for all the economic woes. While the former prime minister, Imran Khan, keeps challenging the very establishment. Today, Imran Khan is facing over 30 cases, including terrorism charges.

The government is also locking horns with the judiciary for control over institutions. Judges are openly called out for being biased.

Amidst the deterioration of the government institution, all eyes are now on the military front of Pakistan – where the real power lies.

Given the country’s crumbling economy and politics, will the commander step in as they have done thrice earlier (1958, 1977, and 1999)?

Is a Military Coup Under Way in Pakistan?

The recent stampede in aid distribution centers paints a very dire picture of the Pakistan crisis. However, the country has come a long way since its last coups.

The situation on the ground is getting bad to worse. The desperation of the ordinary hard-working people is on the rise.

Experts fear there might be slight interventions in the decision-making process. But while the current upheaval might be ringing military coup bells, for now, the power still resides in the hand of the people.