The Encircling of World War III – Iran Uranium Enrichment

The news of Iran uranium enrichment is scary but not unpredictable. The country has been working on a nuclear program for decades now. The key sites are spread across the country, but the most attention is focused on two cities: Natanz and Fordo. 

Today, these two spots are the hotspot of Iran’s uranium enrichment programs. In the beginning, Iran attempted to conceal the existence of both sites, escalating fears that it might be covertly developing a nuclear weapon. However, now both sites are the subject of intense scrutiny.

Now, with the reports of more than doubled uranium enrichment in the country, the tensions between the US and Iran are growing. Here’s a complete explainer:

Iran Uranium Enrichment: An Overview

Natanz site was first exposed in 2002 when Iran secretly relocated the Kalaye Electric Company’s research, development, and manufacturing of gas centrifuges to Natanz. 

However, the National Council of Resistance of Iran, an opposition organization, revealed the location. Hence the operation was not kept a secret for very long. 

Fordow, a remote site built deep in a mountain, was exposed in 2009 by Western Intelligence. That made US President Barack Obama, French President Nicolas Sarkozy, and UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown announce the site’s existence to the world.

Iran stated that its nuclear facility and program are only used for peaceful purposes and would only enrich uranium to 5% U-235 for military purposes. 

Iran, however, subsequently submitted a revised Design Information Questionnaire (DIQ) in June 2011. Claiming that it intended to enrich uranium up to 20% U-235, activities were already started in December 2011.

The FFEP(Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant) was fully accessible to IAEA inspectors when Iran agreed to do so. And the inspectors confirmed that the facility complied with Iranian design requirements.

However, the IAEA highlighted increased concern over the prospect of other Iranian nuclear sites that are not currently declared, similar to the FFEP. Moreover, IAEA observed it did not give any proof that Iran diverted nuclear material produced at the FFEP for military reasons.

The 2015 Agreement: Iran Nuclear Deal

In response to these concerns, China, France, Germany, Russia, the UK, and the US initially signed the Joint Plan of Action (JPOA) in November 2013. The plan states that Iran will halt uranium enrichment above 5% at the FFEP for six months. And as part of the larger accord, Iran agreed to that. 

However, the Joint Plan of Action (JPA) was monitored by IAEA, and they verified Iran’s compliance with the JPA’s measures. Later on, the Joint Plan of Action (JPA) was eventually replaced with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in July 2015.  

The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) is a historic agreement signed between Iran and a number of major superpowers, including the United States. 

Under its provisions, Iran consented to destroy a significant portion of its nuclear program and permit more thorough international inspections of its facilities in exchange for sanctions relief worth billions of dollars.

To decrease the likelihood of a confrontation escalating between Iran and its regional adversaries, such as Israel and Saudi Arabia, the deal’s proponents said that it would contribute to preventing a resurgence of Iran’s nuclear weapons development.

Moreover, with the historic agreement, Iran agreed to stop producing either plutonium or highly enriched uranium that may be used in nuclear weapons. It also took pains to ensure that only civilian endeavors, including medical and industrial research, would be carried out at its Fordow, Natanz, and Arak facilities.

Trump, the Deed Holder 

On 8th May 2018, Donald Trump, the then-president of the United States of America, suddenly backed out of this nuclear deal.

Additionally, Donald trump levied the highest level of sanction on Iran, stating that the agreement has a deteriorating and corrupt structure that is not preventing Iran from making a nuclear bomb.

Donald trump alleged that the Iran government supports terrorism and violence & fuels the chaos in the Middle East. However, political experts in the US believe that Trump backed off for one reason: that Obama signed the agreement, and he had to turn up everything that Obama did. 

Therefore Trump restarted the enmity with Iran again and declared economic sanctions. However, Trump did not stop there; he constantly accelerated the tension between the two countries. 

On 20th June 2019, a US drone was shot down by Iran on the charges of flying under Iranian territory. In one instance, there was a drone attack on Saudi Arabia’s oil tankers; the US alleged it was the deed of Iran.  

On 8th April 2019, Donald Trump made a historic decision by declaring the Iranian military branch Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps a Foreign Terrorist Organization.  

Moreover, on 3rd January 2020, Americans attacked Iran via drone and killed Iranian General Army Chief Soleiman, stating that the USA got the news that Soleiman was planning an attack on America.  

Iran’s Current Nuclear Activities 

Iran began going over the predetermined limitations for its stockpile of low-enriched uranium in 2019. Moreover, Iran also started enriching uranium to higher concentrations in reaction to the US sanction.

Additionally, it restarted heavy water production at its plant in Arak, developed new centrifuges to speed up uranium enrichment, and started enriching uranium at Fordow, rendering the isotopes created there useless for medical use.

The latest move by the Iran government against the retaliation was the enrichment of uranium by 60% purity at its Fordow nuclear plant and plans.  

“Iran had started producing high enriched uranium – UF6 (uranium hexafluoride) enriched up to 60% – using the existing two cascades of IR-6 centrifuges in the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, in addition to such product that has taken place at Natanz since April 2021,”

The director general of IAEA stated

Iran Uranium Enrichment: Is Iran really planning to make a nuclear Bomb? 

The fact that Iran has started higher uranium enrichment than allowed by the 2015 nuclear agreement is undoubtedly concerning. In addition, a heavy-water nuclear reactor might have produced plutonium, which can potentially be used to construct a nuclear bomb. 

The experts and researcher Mohammadbagher Forough believe –

It is true that Iran will have enough enriched uranium to make a nuclear bomb. Iran is still too far off the course, though. Iran would still need to stockpile more than 90% of its uranium to build a nuclear weapon.

Moreover, making only one nuclear weapon is never sufficient for any nation. The nuclear-power country never relies on only one bomb when aware of the consequences, presuming that the nation has several nuclear weapons. With only one nuclear weapon and without the strong backing of superpower nations, no war could be waged. 

There are also many other reasons that Iran is still far from making nuclear bombs. However, despite the increase in Iran’s uranium enrichment, the country lacks the significant elements to make a nuclear weapon. 

The IAEA has nevertheless brought up the question of Iran’s nuclear moment. Still, it is unable to conclude if the country is about to develop its nuclear weapons and that World War III is imminent.