Israel’s attack on Gaza, which is entering its eighth month of ethnic cleansing, is taking new, dangerous turns. What started as hidden attacks now threaten to be a full-blown war between Israeli forces and the Irani-backed militant group in the region – Hezbollah.

However, the prospect of a full-scale war terrifies people on both sides. Aid agencies, including the United Nations, fear the war would be a “catastrophe that goes beyond the border and imagination.” Israel’s open military offensive in southern Lebanon would also risk an Iranian response.

Here’s a detailed report:

Israel-Hezbollah Escalation

While initially caught off-guard, Hezbollah has been supporting its regional ally- Hamas-ever since Israel initiated the Gaza genocide on 7th October. The two sides have exchanged near-daily cross-border strikes.

Till now, over 450 Lebanese, including fighters from the Hezbollah and allied groups and 80 civilians, have lost their lives. On Israel’s side, 16 soldiers and 11 civilians have been killed. The escalation has forced tens of thousands of residents on both sides of the border to be displaced – with no hope of returning any time soon.

But, the escalation simmering for months is now catching sparks. Last week, the Israel army disclosed it has “approved and validated” an offensive plan in Lebanon. In response, the militant group released surveillance drone videos of areas deep inside Israel’s border.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah warned Israel and the world at large, “Whoever thinks of war against us will regret it.” He ended by saying if a war broke out, Hezbollah would fight without limits.

The militia leader also thwarted any prospect of a cease-fire on the Israel-Lebanon border, unless there’s one in Gaza.

Hezbollah is Not Hamas

In his last Wednesday speech, Nasrallah said that militant leaders from Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Iran, and other Middle Eastern countries are offering to send thousands of fighters to help Hezbollah in the fight against Israel. But, with over 100,000 trained fighters, Hezbollah already holds one of the most potent militant armies in the region.

International government and aid agencies fear a war between Israel and Hezbollah will be more brutal and catastrophic than the Gaza crisis because it could put the entire region into war.

But, while the crippling economy of Lebanon puts Hezbollah at a disadvantage, taking apart the militant group’s military powers in days is a far taller task. Since the Israel-Lebanon war, both sides have been preparing for a chance to settle scores.

Hezbollah’s arsenal includes at least 150,000 missiles and rockets. With over 100,000 fighters, the group’s sophisticated attacks – like the largest rocket attack on 5th July – even surprised Israeli officials. They have shot down top-of-the-line Israeli drones and hit the Iron Dome batteries and anti-drone defenses.

Last month, the Iran-backed group shocked the world when it published drone footage of Israel’s highly sensitive public and military infrastructure. The most astonishing of which is Israel’s secret nuclear base.

The International Response to the Israel-Hezbollah Tensions

With the escalations only increasing, an all-out war can even drag the US into conflict with Iran. It could set the entire region on fire. That’s why the United States has drawn a red line on Hezbollah with a warning. It said the group should not assume that the US can stop Israel from attacking them.

And while the warning is conveyed indirectly because America doesn’t engage with the military group one-on-one, the message from the US officials is clear. The warning aims to get Hezbollah to back down. The officials also declared the US’s support to Israel in case Hezbollah retaliates.

After weeks of silence, Iran has warned Israel of an “obliterated war.” The escalating tension is also worrying the international community. This week, Germany, Canada, and the Netherlands immediately urged their citizens to leave Lebanon. Many are re-routing their flights into Lebanon and warning travelers to “strongly reconsider” traveling to the conflicted country.

The world is trying to slow down the tension, but the escalation is only spiraling to a new height in recent weeks as Israel’s attack on Hamas intensifies.

The Brewing Israel-Hezbollah War

Israel has effectively lost sovereignty in the northern part of the country due to consistent cross-border attacks by the group. The statement came before the Thursday attack where Hezbollah fired 200 rockets into the Israeli border – making it the biggest attack in the monthlong conflict. An Aljazeera report showed that since 7th October the two sides have shared 7400 attacks.

Israeli defense minister Yoav Gallant said that while the country is trying to prevent a wider war, its military is capable of getting “Lebanon back to the stone age.” The statement came as Israel is downshifting its military in Gaza and refocusing its resources on the northern Israel-Lebanon border.

But, while both countries do not want a full-scale war, in case a ceasefire deal fails in Gaza, a large-scale Israel-Hezbollah war can break out in the next several weeks – one that’ll be far worse than the last time around.

On July 5, 2023, a Wednesday morning, two Iranian Navy ships approached US oil tankers in two separate incidents in the Gulf of Oman. One of the Iranian Navy ships fired its weapons at an oil tanker – escalating tensions in the region. The incident is marking another chapter in a string of incidents that have been occurring since 2019.

The Gulf of Oman Incident

According to commander Tim Hawkins, spokesman for the U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet:

“The Iranian navy did make attempts to seize commercial tankers lawfully transiting international waters.”

At 01:00 AM local time, an Iranian Navy ship came near the oil tanker TRF Moss, which was flagged by the Marshall Islands. However, the Iranian Navy ship left the region when the US Navy destroyer USS McFaul arrived in the area.

Further, three hours later, at 4:00 AM, the US Navy received a distress call from the Bahamas-flagged oil tanker Richmond Voyager. According to the US Navy, the Bahamas-flagged oil tanker was more than 20 miles from the coast of Muscat, Oman, when another Iranian Navy ship came approaching the US oil tanker.

The Iranian Navy ship was signaling the oil tanker to stop when the same US Navy destroyer, USS McFaul, headed towards the oil tanker at full speed. 

The Iranian Navy fired its weapons before the US Navy destroyer USS McFaul arrived on the scene with a lot of bullets in a short period of time. According to the US Navy, the Iranian Navy fired with both small arms, such as pistols and rifles, and crew-served weapons, such as machine guns and cannons.

The bullets struck the side of the oil tanker near the crew’s living spaces, but no one was injured. However, The US Navy destroyer USS McFaul arrived on the scene, and the Iranian Navy ship left.

The Continual Attacks of Iran in the Gulf of Oman –

Iran has been continuously involved in multiple attacks on oil tankers since 2019 on a major shipping route for oil. According to the US Navy, Iran has either harassed or seized nearly 20 commercial ships that have been flagged by other countries since 2021.

Such attacks on major shipping routes for oil pose a clear threat to the security of shipping in the region and the global economy – according to the US Navy. The recent attack of July 2023 was not the first attempt by Iran; on June 14, 2019, Iran attempted to seize two US oil tankers by blast, which spiked the oil price significantly. However, the explosions raised concerns about a potential military conflict between Iran and the United States.

Earlier this year, Iran took control of two oil tankers in less than a week in the same region of the Strait of Hormuz, near the Gulf of Oman. Hence, knowing the importance and criticality of waterways for the global economy, such seizures prompted the US to send more ships and aircraft to patrol the Strait of Hormuz. The United States is working with individual countries in the region to deter threats to commercial shipping and prevent attacks on commercial ships.

In May 2023, Greece issued a serious notice and warned ship owners to stay away from Iranian waters because there was a risk of being attacked. However, the latest seizure of an oil tanker by Iran is part of a series of attacks on commercial vessels in the Gulf of Oman that have been happening since 2019.

Why is Iran Constantly Attacking US Oil Tankers? 

According to the U.S. Navy, in the past two years, Iran has taken commercial vessels in at least five instances. Additionally, they have recorded more than a dozen instances of Iran bothering commercial vessels during the past two years. And many of the incidents have happened in the Strait of Hormuz or nearby regions, a major shipping route for oil, which accounts for about 20% of all crude oil. 

The constant attack of Iran on US oil tankers in waterways is considered retaliation for withdrawing Iran’s 2015 nuclear agreement with world powers and restoring crippling sanctions by the US during the reign of President Trump. 

The Trump administration’s decision to leave the Iran nuclear deal and impose new sanctions on Iran has led to increased tensions between Iran and the United States. 

However, after the decision to leave the Iran nuclear deal, Iran has increased its nuclear activities within the country, which could be used to develop nuclear weapons. However, the United States and other countries in the world have worked together to prevent such practices by Iran. 

Nevertheless, Iran has denied such practice and says that its nuclear activities are for peaceful purposes, such as generating electricity. Further, Iran is providing Russia with armed drones that can be used in the war against Ukraine. This is further increasing tension among countries and is a serious concern for the international community. 

What will Happen Next?

The ongoing tension between Iran and the US serves as a stark reminder of the delicate balance that should be maintained in international waters. Iran’s repeated attack on the US and other countries’ oil tankers and commercial vessels shows the ever-complex geopolitical landscape in the middle-east region.

However, as countries work together to maintain maritime trade security, diplomatic efforts and international cooperation must be at the forefront of resolving these conflicts. 

The world is watching closely with the hope of a peaceful resolution – especially in times of current economic and diplomatic uncertainties. 

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Seven years after their relations were broken, Saudi Arabia and Iran, the two major oil-producing competitors of the Middle East, have agreed to mend fences by reopening their embassies. The Saudi-Iran Deal is being said to bring the Middle East “Security, Stability” and have global implications. It is unexpected that the accord was signed in China because negotiations between Saudi Arabia and Iran on a future reconciliation had been ongoing for years, primarily in Iraq. After meetings held in Beijing under Chinese mediation, the Saudi-Iran deal was sealed.

According to a joint statement, Iran and Saudi Arabia “agreed to resume diplomatic relations and reopen embassies… within two months” as a result of the negotiations, Iran’s national news agency said.

A video showing Ali Shamkhani, the council’s secretary, chatting with a Saudi official and China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, was posted by Nour News, a website affiliated with Iran’s supreme national security council. “After implementing the decision, the foreign ministers of both nations will meet to prepare for exchange of ambassadors,” Iranian state television said.

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Why had Saudi and Iran Cut Diplomatic Ties?

Following the killing of a renowned Shia cleric and preacher Nimr al-Nimar, Iranian protestors attacked Saudi diplomatic offices in Iran in 2016, leading to a deepening sectarian rift between Riyadh and Tehran causing Sadi and Iran to cut ties. The Saudi Arabian government’s killing of the renowned Shia preacher had drawn criticism from the Iranian government and Middle Eastern religious authorities, who threatened the country’s royal family with consequences. The execution of Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr sparked widespread outrage, according to councils and clerics in Iran, Yemen, and Lebanon, which significantly heightened religious and diplomatic tensions in the area.

In recent years, the rivalry between predominantly Sunni Saudi Arabia and predominantly Shia Iran, has dominated Middle East affairs and spread to Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen.

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Why Does the Saudi-Iran Deal Send Shockwaves to Israel?

The announcement of the reconciliation between longtime opponents Saudi Arabia and Iran on March 12, sent shockwaves through the Middle East and struck a symbolic blow to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has made countering the threat presented by Tehran a top priority in his public diplomacy efforts. He has presented himself as the sole leader capable of shielding Israel from Iran’s nuclear program, which according to him is expanding quickly, as well as from Iranian proxies in the region, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Reports claim that Israeli-linked ships transporting supplies in the Persian Gulf have been targeted by suspected Iranian drone strikes, among other attacks, as a result of Israel and Iran’s ongoing regional shadow war.

Netanyahu’s normalization agreements with four Arab nations, including Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates, in 2020 remain one of his greatest diplomatic victories. They were part of an overall strategy to oppose and isolate Iran in the area.

Earlier Netanyahu and his allies made hints that a deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia would be close since taking office late last year. Last month, Netanyahu said in an address to American Jewish leaders that a peace deal was “a goal that we are working on in parallel with the goal of stopping Iran.” However, experts claim that such plans have been dashed by the Saudi-Iran agreement that was unveiled on Friday.

Israel is essentially on its own as it spearheads efforts to diplomatically isolate Iran and makes threats of an unprovoked military attack against Iran’s nuclear facilities as a result of Saudi Arabia’s choice to cooperate with its regional opponent Iran. Additionally, the UAE and Iran reestablished official ties last year.

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Israel and Netanyahu baffled over Saudi-Iran Deal

The Saudi-Iran deal led to not just disappointment but also finger-pointing in Israel. Benjamin Netanyahu has been baffled over the Saudi Iranian deal and blamed Yair Lapid and Naftali Bennett’s previous administration in Israel, as well as U.S. President Biden. When negotiations between Saudi Arabia and Iran got underway a year ago, Netanyahu charged that they failed to take a firm enough stance.

Danny Danon, a Netanyahu ally and former Israeli ambassador to the U.N. who recently predicted a peace agreement with Saudi Arabia in 2023, seemed disconcerted.

“This is not supporting our efforts,” he said when asked about whether the rapprochement hurt chances for the kingdom’s recognition of Israel.

“It’s a blow to Israel’s notion and efforts in recent years to try to form an anti-Iran bloc in the region,” said Yoel Guzansky, an expert on the Persian Gulf at the Institute for National Security Studies, an Israeli think tank. “If you see the Middle East as a zero-sum game, which Israel and Iran do, a diplomatic win for Iran is very bad news for Israel.”.

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Saudi Iran Deal Causes a Blow to the Abraham Accords

Additionally, Israel is also worried that the Saudi-Iran deal can cause a blow to the Abraham Accords signed on Sept. 15, 2020, which normalized diplomatic relations among Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and, potentially, Sudan. Because the Saudi-Iran deal challenges the Abraham Accords’ most fundamental justification, there is currently a sense of discontent across the Israeli political spectrum. Israelis and Americans can make all the claims they want about the Accords being peace treaties, which they are not, or about the economic advantages. The main goals of the Accords, however, were expanded Arab state access to American weapons and coordination, as well as an Israeli-Arab coalition against Iran.

That framework provided Israel with the solution it had been looking for for years, which is the normalization with the Arab world without giving the Palestinians their freedoms and rights. The Saudi-Iran deal causes a blow to the Abraham Accords because it will fail Israel’s attempts to isolate Iran from the middle eastern countries. While the Saudi-Iran Deal has the potential to make shifts in both regional and global politics, it could also mean a lot less than it initially anticipated.

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