Predictable, Unpredicted – The Looming Threat of Famine in Somalia

Famine is knocking at Somalia’s door, with nearly 8 million people facing extreme hunger daily. The threat is even more concerning with the UN’s head of humanitarian affairs warning that by the end of 2022, Somalia’s central and southern areas will probably be under famine.

But, how did Somalia reach here? Exactly how bad is the condition? And, is there a way out?

What Factors are Responsible for the Impending Famine in Somalia?

East Africa is going through the worst drought in decades, killing crops and making food unaffordable for many. But, Somalia, especially, is extremely unfortunate with a string of crises hitting the already starving country, one after another.

Water Shortage and Poor Hygiene

Today, 90% of Somalia’s country is experiencing water shortages due to recent below-average rainfall, marking the fifth unproductive rainy season.

Unfortunately, a lack of water has caused lung ailments, diarrhea, cholera, and other diseases to spread throughout the nation. In addition, people are forced to drink polluted water, thus, further increasing the risk to their health.

Along with inadequate sanitary facilities and poor hygiene, the country lacks access to safe and clean drinking water. As a result, since January and July 2022, more than 7000 instances of diarrhea have been documented, with 37 death, and 53% of those cases involving young children below two years of age.

Locust Infestation & Russia-Ukraine War

Not long after the Covid-19 effect subsided, Somalia was severely affected by the 2019–2020 floods, which wiped off the majority of the country’s crops and pasture.

This was followed by desert locust infestation, which wiped off the nation’s major meager crops and pastures that had survived the floods.

Moreover, over 90% of wheat supplies in Somalia come from Russia and Ukraine. And, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine has resulted in skyrocketing food prices, grain shortage, and starvation in many countries, including Somalia.

Political Unrest and Its Link to the Looming Famine in Somalia

When talking about factors accelerating hunger throughout Somalia, the country’s political unrest cannot be ignored.

Somalia is embroiled in a brutal civil war for more than three decades. And, its impact can be seen in the steep fall in agricultural production (Sorghum and maize ) since the early 1990s.

Additionally, Somalia’s relations with its neighbors are likewise unstable. The civil war between Somalia and its neighbor Ethiopia began in 2020 and has prolonged the drought and complicated the whole humanitarian effort in the area.

Experts estimate that over 0.9 million Somalians continue to live in unstable areas as the drought crisis worsens and in the region where active pockets of warfare are still present.

Somalia, Ethiopia, and Kenya are pushed into severe food crises due to civil war, climate change, and the unpredicted global economic situation.

However, climate change is the principal reason behind this worsening situation in Somalia and other countries.

How is Somalia’s Agriculture Affected due to Climate Change?

Global food security and agricultural productivity are urgently and continuously threatened by climate change. And the most apparent effect of climate change is on agricultural productivity.

Climate change has increased the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, such as rising temperature and sea levels, changes in rainfall patterns, prolonged drought, extinction of groundwater, and land degradation. 

Somalia occupies a region of around 6,47,540 km2 in the Horn of Africa. Over 16.9 million people call Somalia home, and 60% reside in rural areas. Besides, 65% of the total Somali GDP and employment is for agriculture and agricultural activities.

Variations in the climate primarily affect sorghum during the breeding or grain-filling stages, which results in crop loss. As Somalia has been severing affected by climate change, the country is experiencing high temperatures and brutal winds. 

High temperatures and strong winds substantially impact sorghum yield. They primarily change the biomass accumulation rate and lengthen crops’ growing seasons.

Additionally, such hard winds and high temperature in Somalia is not only affecting the productivity of crops, but it also impacts on quality of crops.

Furthermore, sorghum yield is substantially impacted by the repeated failure of the rainy season in Somalia, which inhibits fertilization and causes the spikes to dry up throughout the flowering phases, reducing yield.

Heavy sessions of drought, high temperatures, and an increase in sea level have dried out the groundwater in Somalia. The water and climate change crisis in Somalia is not only affecting the breeds of humans, but it also influences the foliage development of plants, leaves, and trees. 

Issues in providing humanitarian aid to the needy in Somalia

The death rate since May 2022 has significantly increased in Somalia. Today, one Somalian dies every 48 seconds due to hunger and the water crisis. Up to 7.1 million people are still in need of urgent humanitarian aid in Somalia.

There are around 3,80,000 refugees that are taking assistance in neighboring countries like Ethiopia and Kenya.

The primary issue of providing humanitarian aid to Somalia was the first warning issued by the UN was hit on deaf ears.

Many developed countries like the US and UK did not react when needed. Hence, the coordinated plan to rescue Somalia from upcoming famine received only US$56 million in the month of march. The amount that was supposed to be received was US$1.5 billion. The humanitarian aid is still yet to receive half of its approved amount.

The Internal Bias

Another issue in providing humanitarian aid to the needy is a bias among the people in religion, ethnicity, race, religious identity, and different caste.

According to the latest study, people who were previously affected due to famine are precisely those who have been involved recently. The study found that due to bias in previous famines, the minors were not accessible to humanitarian aid. And it is believed that many of them still will not receive cash, food, medical, and other assistance.

Famine in Somalia: The Uncertain Future that Awaits

Famine in Somalia has long been coming. At Mzemo, we have been hinting at the lack of funding and aid response. Now, the situation has gotten out of hand.

Somalia will face its fifth sequential unsuccessful rainy season, with a fifth set to occur during the next three months. Due to consecutive failed rainy seasons and land degradation due to climate change, Somalia is facing extreme drought.

On the other hand, Somalia’s situation is escalating rapidly due to the invasion of Ukraine and Covid-19’s after-effects. Moreover, the purchasing power has been considerably reduced and significantly deteriorated by the food crisis in many regions of Somalia.

But, amidst the crisis, Somalia’s new government is gleaming with a hope of better tomorrow. Speaking with BBC, Abdirahman Abdishakur says,