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Turkey-Israel Relations: Erdogan is Using the Palestinian Cause for Electoral Gains

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Turkey-Israel relations

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan recently claimed that Portuguese football star Cristiano Ronaldo was subjected to a “political ban” at the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022 for his purported support for the Palestinian cause. “They have wasted Ronaldo. Unfortunately, they have imposed a political ban on him,” Erdogan was reported to have said on Sunday while speaking at a youth event in Turkey. The president added, “Ronaldo is someone who stands for the Palestinian cause.” 

It is not clear what was the basis of Erdogan’s claim. Ronaldo has never publicly issued a statement in favour of Palestinians. However, there are several doctored videos which are viral on social media in which Ronaldo is seen supporting the Palestinian cause by expressing solidarity with Palestinians or avoiding handshaking with Israeli officials.

Since the elections in Turkey will be held this year in June, this was yet another attempt by Erdogan to appropriate the Palestinian cause for his electoral gains. 

Erdogan’s Desperate Attempt to Restore Relations with Israel 

It is pertinent to mention that Erdogan recently lobbied desperately with Israeli president Isaac Herzog to restore diplomatic relations between the two countries. The diplomatic relations between the two countries were recently normalized in November last year with Turkey appointing an ambassador to Israel after a gap of four years. 

A week before Erdogan appointed his ambassador to Israel, he had sent a congratulatory letter to Netanyahu for winning the Israeli elections. “I congratulate you on your victory in the elections and believe that the new government will continue the cooperation between the countries in all fields in a way that will bring peace and stability to our region,” he wrote. 

Erdogan’s desperation to restore relations with Israel came because of the economic woes and the isolation it had felt in the region. It is also a calculated move as Turkey’s relations with the US have deteriorated. Erdogan seems to be banking on the strong Jewish lobby in the US to lobby for Turkey. Even though Turkey is a NATO member, the US recently imposed CAATSA sanctions on Turkey over the purchase of the Russian S-400 missile system. There is also a history of Jews lobbying for Turkey in the US.

Also Read: Turkey _ Israel normalization: Ukraine war is a new window

A Deep Freeze in Turkey-Israeli Relations

Turkey-Israel relations went into a deep freeze in 2010 when Israeli commandos stormed and killed 10 Turkish citizens on board the Mavi Marmara, a ship that was part of an aid flotilla trying to breach the blockade of Gaza. Israel later apologized and provided compensation to the families of those killed. Subsequently, the two countries normalized the bilateral relations in 2016. However, when the US recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel in 2018, the relations between the two countries again deteriorated after Israeli forces killed 60 Palestinian protestors in Gaza. Turkey expelled the Israeli ambassador from Ankara and withdrew its ambassador from Tel Aviv.

Also Read: Israel’s intense Practices to Uproot the Palestinians in Jerusalem

Turkey-Israel Relations Based on Realpolitik

Turkey was the first Muslim-majority country to recognize the existence of the state of Israel. The country formally recognized Israel barely nine months after it came into existence in March 1949. Turkey was also the first country in the Middle East and Asia to recognize Israel. The relationship between the two countries was based on mutual interests and common strategic goals. The circumstances in which Israel came into existence and its quest for legitimacy made it important for Israel to have relations with Turkey.

Therefore, Israel viewed the non-Arab Muslim majority Turkey in the vicinity, as a key to breaking its isolation. For Turkey’s rulers also, relations with Israel were based on realpolitik. At that time, the relations with Israel were the bellwether of its commitment to Western orientation. Hence, the reasons for the establishment of relations with Israel included help in Turkey’s relations with the West and access to American credit mechanisms.

Also Read: The Economic Crisis in Turkey… No light at the End of the Tunnel!

Bilateral Trade Between the Two Countries

Despite all these confrontations, Israel holds an important position in Turkey’s politics and economy. The two countries have decoupled the bilateral trade from politics.

Turkey-Israel Bilateral Trade

As is evident from the chart on bilateral trade, the political issues between the two countries did not affect the trade. Politically, Turkey’s relations with Israel are based on political expediency. When Turkey feels it has something to gain from its friendship with Israel, it normalizes ties and when it thinks it can profit from snapping ties with Israel, it downgrades relations with Israel.

There is an inherent tension that has always defined Turkish-Israeli relations. On the one hand, Turkey used Israel’s leverage in corridors of power, particularly in the United States, to accrue benefits for state interests, strategic priorities and security. On the other hand, the Turkish public has always been sympathetic to the cause of Palestine. Therefore, due to domestic pressure, the politicians in Ankara cannot ignore the Palestinian issue completely.

Right now, as Erdogan reaches out to Israel for mending relations, the leaders in Israel are wary that Erdogan wants to leverage the normalized relations to improve the economy of the country as well as his image. After achieving these goals, Erdogan may do with the relations whatever he wishes depending on the kind of issues he would be facing. In the case of domestic politics, normal ties with Israel will not be helpful but in the case of international issues, friendship with Israel can always pay off. Hence, when it comes to elections Erdogan is right now using the Palestinian cause for his electoral gains while at the same time, he is improving ties with Israel to promote Turkey’s interests.

Also Read: Israel Has No Right to Exist if Palestine Has No Right to Exist

Palestinian Cause and Elections in Muslim Majority Countries

Like Turkey, the Palestinian cause is an issue that is a major electoral issue in most of the Muslim-majority countries around the world. However, it is a shame that political leaders like Erdogan appropriate a just cause for their electoral gains but forget it once the elections are complete. Muslim populations around the world must ensure that their leaders are not only using the Palestinian cause for electoral gains but are also taking credible action towards supporting the Palestinian population in their just cause.

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The Russian invasion of Ukraine: Will more states seek to acquire Nuclear weapons?

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Nuclear weapons in Ukraine

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is prompting many states around the world to reconsider their national defence strategies. Governments have privately and openly voiced their apprehension about the growing fragility of the post-WWII international order, especially the utter inability of the UN and its Security Council to prevent powerful hegemonic nations, such as Russia, from attacking and occupying and annexing large territories of less powerful neighbours, such as Ukraine.

Some leaders and diplomats have warned that, in light of the clear impotence of the UN in tackling the Ukrainian crisis,  and in the absence of a nuclear deterrent of their own, some vulnerable non-nuclear states will be forced to either acquire Nuclear weapons to achieve a semblance of Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) vis-à-vis potential predators or seek a military alliance with some established nuclear powers for the same purpose.

Zelensky: “Ukraine will be like a Big Israel”

Speaking to reporters a few days ago, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy  told reporters that post-war Ukraine  would be like “a big Israel.”

He didn’t clarify what he exactly meant by drawing the Israeli analogy.

However, it was amply clear that he was alluding to the contemplated acquisition of a sizeable Nuclear weapon, like that of Israel, in order to deter a future possible Russian invasion. Ukraine had given up its Nuclear weapons to Russia following the downfall of the former Soviet Union.

Read Also: Rectifying Nuclear Imbalance with Israel should be a strategic priority for Egypt, SA and Turkey

However, experts argue that Ukraine could fairly quickly renew its Nuclear weapon since the country already possesses the technical and scientific infrastructure which it inherited from the Soviet era.

Hence, Ukraine wouldn’t have to begin from scratch in case it decided to renew its nuclear weapon program.  Moreover, Ukraine could start producing enriched uranium for military purposes in a few days, depending on the decision of the political leadership.  Shortly after the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine 11 months ago, Ukraine’s defence officials voiced their deep remorse for having given up their former nuclear arsenal. In light, it is almost certain that the current leadership in Kyiv will decide to revive the nuclear option as soon as an opportune time arises.

Medvedev: Russian defeat in Ukraine would trigger a nuclear war

Nuclear weapon in Russia
The ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine is prompting many states to acquire nuclear weapons

This weak, former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev warned NATO of nuclear war if Russia was defeated in Ukraine.

Medvedev, an ally of Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin, warned that a Russian defeat in Ukraine could trigger a nuclear war. “The defeat of a nuclear power in a conventional war may trigger a nuclear war,” Medvedev, who serves as deputy chairman of Putin’s powerful security council, reportedly said in a post on the Telegraph.

“Nuclear powers have never lost major conflicts on which their fate depends,”.

Warning should be taken seriously


Undoubtedly, Medvedev’s warnings contain an important element of rhetorical sabre-rattling and psychological warfare. However, this writer believes the West ought to take the warnings quite seriously.

There are sufficient reasons that should make us think twice before dismissing the above doomsday warnings as hot air. Indeed, a Russian defeat in Ukraine would have far-reaching global consequences and ramifications.

Indeed, a decisive and humiliating Russian defeat in Ukraine would very likely be the most important strategic international game-changer not only since the collapse of the former Soviet Union in 1989 but also since the 1917 Bolshevik revolution in Russia. Russia would morph into a boiling cauldron of anger and furious indignation.

Thus, the demand for the use of nuclear weapons to avert a possible Russian defeat in Ukraine would gain massive popularity throughout Russia. The galvanization of Russia’s 145  million population would be the penultimate step leading to the kremlin’s decision to press the nuclear button.

Nuclear is futile if not used when needed

 After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Advocates for the nuclear option would convincingly argue that nuclear weapons would lose their raison detre if they failed to protect the possessor country, the motherland, when needed most, e.g., when the country faces the prospect of defeat and humiliation in war. The question of who is the aggressor and who is the victim would be almost irrelevant in such an atmosphere. Moreover, the US, which used the first ever and last nuclear weapon against Japan in 1945, would not be in a moral position to lecture Russia on the evils of using nuclear weapons.

 The Russian invasion of Ukraine: Gigantic Dilemma

A Russian victory or defeat in Ukraine would cause the current international order,  instated after WWII,  to collapse. A decisive Russian defeat in Ukraine, which seems unlikely at least now,  would likely irreversibly paralyze or effectively terminate the UN and its Security Council. The UN would virtually become completely at the US beck and call. 

On the other hand, a decisive Russian victory, which is also unlikely, would turn the international order upside down and transform the world into a real jungle.

Read Also: The Encircling of World War III – Iran Uranium Enrichment

A Russian victory would probably encourage certain states to emulate Russia and carry out naked aggressions of their own against militarily weaker foes or neighbouring states. Certain possible scenarios come to the mind in this regard.

China might be emboldened to invade and occupy Taiwan if Russia emerged as winner.

Israel might well decide to seize the opportunity and  wage an all-out war on Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza Strip for the purpose of liquidating the Palestinian issue once and for all. In the process, Israel might carry out huge massacres of Palestinians and embark on the demolition of Islamic holy places in Jerusalem especially the Aqsa Mosque and Dome of the Rock.  Moreover, Israel might also decide to carry out massive airstrikes on Iranian cities or even drop nuclear bombs under the rubric of destroying the Iranian nuclear program and preventing the recurrence of the Holocaust!

Read Also: What Xi Jinping Aims, Acquires – The Return of Persistent President

Other possible scenarios would probably include a possible all-out war by North Korea against South Korea, and a naked aggression by Russian-backed  Serbia against  Bosnia and Kosovo.

Conclusion

I am not a prophet of doom and gloom, but it is always safer to assume that the worse could happen. There is no doubt that a new world order would appear after the end of the Russian invasion of Ukraine regardless of the outcome of the war . There is also little doubt that the post-Ukraine war will witness more military and strategic polarization than ever. However, the gravest problem facing the post-war world order would, almost certainly, take the form of many states seeking actively to acquire nuclear weapons for their own national defence. Therefore, the nuclear proliferation issue would be the number-1 problem facing the world, with the chances of a nuclear accident or miscalculation reaching terrifying levels. (end) 

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BBC’s Modi Documentary Rattles Modi Government

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BBC Documentary on Modi

BCC recently released a documentary on India’s controversial right-wing Prime Minister Narendra Modi rattling Modi and his ruling party Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The documentary’s first episode titled “India: The Modi Question” which was released in the UK on 17th January drew a sharp reaction from the Modi government.

Modi Government Blocks the Documentary in India

The Modi government moved swiftly to block the documentary in India. Proving right the critics of IT Rules, 2021, the Modi government’s Ministry of Information & Broadcasting invoked emergency powers under the IT Rules, 2021 to order YouTube to take down all the videos that had published the first episode of the documentary. Orders were also issued to Twitter to take down all the tweets that had posted the link to the documentary. Both YouTube and Twitter complied with the orders, removing all the posts and videos flagged by the government.

The government alleged that the documentary was found to be “undermining sovereignty and integrity of India, and having the potential to adversely impact India’s friendly relations with foreign states”, which allowed for the invocation of the emergency powers under the IT Rules, 2021. The government also alleged that the documentary questions the credibility of the Supreme Court of India and attempts to sow divisions among different communities while also making unsubstantiated allegations regarding the activities of foreign governments in India.


Earlier India’s External Affairs Ministry spokesperson dismissed the documentary as a “propaganda piece that lacks objectivity and reflects colonial mindset”. The spokesperson also questioned the timings of the release of the documentary.

Also Read: Why Is Indian PM Modi’s Silent About Attacks Against Muslims?

The Documentary

The documentary’s first episode produced by the BBC tracks Modi’s “first steps into politics”- his association with the right-wing Hindu extremist organisation Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), his rise through the ranks of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and further his appointment as Chief Minister of the state of Gujarat in 2001 till 2014. As the Chief Minister of Gujarat, Modi’s involvement in and his response to a series of communal riots in 2002 remains a source of controversy.


The documentary highlights a previously unpublished report, obtained by the BBC from the British Foreign Office, which raises questions about Modi’s actions during the religious riots. The report claims that Modi was “directly responsible” for the “climate of impunity” that enabled the violence.


The report cited by the BCC was part of an inquiry ordered by the then foreign secretary Jack Straw. The reports say that “the extent of violence was much greater than reported” and “the aim of the riots was to purge Muslims from Hindu areas”.
Jack Straw is heard in the documentary saying, “these were very serious claims that Mr Modi had played a proactive part in pulling back police and in tacitly encouraging the Hindu extremists. That was a particularly egregious example of political involvement to prevent police from doing their job to protect the Hindus and the Muslims.”

Also Read: Gujrat Riots: Has Indian Democracy Breathed its Last?

Modi’s Role in Gujarat Riots of 2002

It is the documentary’s highlight of the Gujarat riots of 2002 that has rattled the Modi government.


The Gujarat riots of 2002 claimed the lives of more than 1,000 people. Most of those killed were Muslims. Modi is alleged to have instigated the riots and further prevented the police and the army from taking any action to stop the riots. Most of the reports published on the Gujarat riots by the Indian media as well as the international media point out Modi’s direct role in facilitating the riots. It has been claimed that Modi gave a free hand to Hindu extremists to kill Muslims and the aim was to purge Hindu localities of Muslims.


Modi has rejected these accusations. Further, in 2013 an investigation approved by the Indian Supreme Court absolved Mr. Modi of complicity in the rioting. Based on that finding, a court in the state of Gujarat found that there was insufficient evidence to prosecute him.

Also Read: Why BJP is Fascist Despite Contesting Elections.?

Action Taken by Foreign Countries against Modi

Like the above-cited British Foreign Office report, there were many countries that were convinced of Modi’s role in the killing of Muslims during the riots. Concerned countries acted against Modi at different levels.


Modi was banned entry into the U.S. for more than a decade for his role in the riots. In 2005, Modi became the only person ever to be denied a U.S. visa under the 1998 law on violations of religious freedom. The U.S. State Department invoked a little-known U.S. law passed in 1998 that makes foreign officials responsible for “severe violations of religious freedom” ineligible for visas. The ban on Modi’s travel to the U.S. was revoked by the Obama administration in 2014 after he became the prime minister of India.

Also Read: How Practical is the Secular Democracy of India? Curbing of Religious Freedom in Kashmir

A Permanent Stain on Modi’s Career

Modi may have achieved great things in his political career, but the stain of the Gujarat riots is permanent on his career.


Modi loves the camera. He loves advertising and branding himself. Modi puts his picture on everything. He loves hearing his voice. However, ever since he became the prime minister of India, he has never given an unscripted interview to the media. He has also never held a press conference in India or abroad. It has been claimed that Modi does not want difficult questions about his attitude towards the Muslim minority of India thrown at him.

When Modi became the prime minister of India, Indian liberals were hopeful that Modi had changed. They were wrong in their assessment that Modi as a prime minister would be inclusive. However, after Modi’s eight years as a prime minister now, he has not changed his attitude towards Muslims. As of now, Muslims are increasingly persecuted by his government.

This author highly recommends that you watch the BBC documentary on Modi. Its first episode has been released here (if you are outside the UK watch it here or use VPN). The next episode will be available on Tuesday, January 24, 2023, at 21:00.

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19.4 Million Afghan Women Struggling to Survive Under Taliban

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Afghan women

Women banned from schools and colleges. Women flogged in markets with dozens of spectators. Girls, as young as 15, mandated to wear complete body covering: These are the horrifying reality Afghan women are forced to live in every day. 

Rules of Sharia on Every Moment

Women’s freedom of movement and access to their bodies continue to be restricted in Taliban-run Afghanistan. The draconian group imposed huge barriers on women’s even basic needs: health, education, migration, and expression, depriving thousands of many of their right to earn a livelihood. 

Women in Afghanistan have already suffered the most significant losses due to the war and militarization. However, with the control of the Taliban over the nation, the future and dreams of Afghan women are collapsing drastically. 

Afghan Women: The Future Looks Dark 

The Taliban treat women and girls brutally, and they are forbidden from attending secondary and higher education. Migration and independent travel for women is prohibited. They are not even permitted to migrate or travel without a male chaperone. Girls as young as 13 are forced into marriage.

The Taliban administration has abolished the Ministry of Women Affairs in Afghanistan due to its extreme depravity. There are now no female cabinet members in the Afghan government, thereby ending political participation of 50% of the population.

Afghan Women
Afghan Women. Source: CNN

Following the takeover of Afghanistan, the schools and colleges were forcibly compelled to enact new regulations. It includes gender-apartheid entrances and classrooms. Only female professors or older men can instruct female students. Additionally, the authorities closed the Madressa that solely taught female students. 

The future of Afghan women appears bleak with such harsh restrictions and draconian rules. The local women have various aspirations. Young girls want to finish their education and pursue careers in large corporations. But at the moment, it looks gloomy and almost impossible for Afghan women. 

Lost Careers & Starving Families

Women-founded business is facing the worst time under Taliban.

Women investors have left their positions or hired males to do their business Women entrepreneurs claim they have invested thousands of Afghanis in the previous government but are currently compelled to close their firms.

The current environment prevents women from freely engaging in small-scale business or employment. Even when women are the only source of income for their families, Afghan women no longer dare to start their businesses.

If these conditions persist, many Afghan families will go hungry.

In Afghanistan, the handicraft industry thrived before the Taliban’s leadership, giving thousands of women jobs. Clothing, goods, and handicraft products were exported to Australia and New Zealand.

However, after the Taliban seized control, the industry went bankrupt due to a policy that discriminated against women and flying restrictions that reduced trade and affected the business adversely.

Afghan Women’s Lives at risk

The women’s crisis in Afghanistan keeps escalating — the restrictions, limitations, and dictatorship have gone too far ahead.

Due to a shortage of healthcare services, Afghan women face significant difficulties. They are restricted from visiting doctors without a male companion, and in some cities, women are not allowed to visit male doctors while the number of female physicians in the nation is closing to nil.

Collapsing Healthcare of Afghanistan
Collapsing Healthcare of Afghanistan. Source: Foregin Policy

Additionally, women and girls are denied access to healthcare, and reports even imply that they are subjected to assault with no means of fleeing. 

The restriction of female students from secondary and higher education violates their right to education and limits female students from reaching their full potential. 

Banning female students from getting an education increases child marriages, early pregnancy, abuse, and violence. 

Because when you stop 50% of the population from participating in the workforce, your economy falls. Health clinics are running out of medical supplies and professionals, schools do not have enough teachers, the economy is dying, and people at the bottom are bearing the brunt. 

Almost every house headed or led by women has lacked sufficient food due to the rise in fuel, food prices, and no source of income. The situation has worsened due to the drought and the war in Ukraine. It is difficult to see women becoming beggars along with their children.

The current situation of Afghan women is deteriorating in the virtual prisoner environment. Taliban restrictions have made women’s financial hardships worse. The lives of Afghan women are seriously at stake, and many women feel it would be better if they had died in the war.  

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The Silver Line But a Long Way Ahead 

UNICEF and NGOs are defending Afghan women and trying to help them as much as possible. The United Nations has repeatedly emphasized that it is committed to carrying out its mission in Afghanistan and promoting the rights of women and girls in the region.

UNFPA is enhancing its existence and helping women through Afghanistan socialism and is collaborating with national partners. UNICEF assumes responsibility for paying the teachers’ monthly salaries and providing them with the necessities for survival. UNFPA is also contributing its share to expand the provision of sexual and reproductive health services, again, for women in rural areas.

But it’s not enough, especially with Taliban banning female NGO employees from coming to work.

To rescue innocent women and children from this catastrophe, more social organizations must advance in light of their responsibility and the current state of Afghan women. 

The Taliban should be put under pressure by international organizations and governments to fully implement gender equality and defend the human rights of all Afghan women and girls.

Organizations must quickly realize that women should be given the reins for recovery, peace, stability, and basic rights. Unless that is, the lives of Afghan women continue to deteriorate, and their dreams continue to collapse EVERY SINGLE DAY!

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