Israel’s attack on Gaza, which is entering its eighth month of ethnic cleansing, is taking new, dangerous turns. What started as hidden attacks now threaten to be a full-blown war between Israeli forces and the Irani-backed militant group in the region – Hezbollah.

However, the prospect of a full-scale war terrifies people on both sides. Aid agencies, including the United Nations, fear the war would be a “catastrophe that goes beyond the border and imagination.” Israel’s open military offensive in southern Lebanon would also risk an Iranian response.

Here’s a detailed report:

Israel-Hezbollah Escalation

While initially caught off-guard, Hezbollah has been supporting its regional ally- Hamas-ever since Israel initiated the Gaza genocide on 7th October. The two sides have exchanged near-daily cross-border strikes.

Till now, over 450 Lebanese, including fighters from the Hezbollah and allied groups and 80 civilians, have lost their lives. On Israel’s side, 16 soldiers and 11 civilians have been killed. The escalation has forced tens of thousands of residents on both sides of the border to be displaced – with no hope of returning any time soon.

But, the escalation simmering for months is now catching sparks. Last week, the Israel army disclosed it has “approved and validated” an offensive plan in Lebanon. In response, the militant group released surveillance drone videos of areas deep inside Israel’s border.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah warned Israel and the world at large, “Whoever thinks of war against us will regret it.” He ended by saying if a war broke out, Hezbollah would fight without limits.

The militia leader also thwarted any prospect of a cease-fire on the Israel-Lebanon border, unless there’s one in Gaza.

Hezbollah is Not Hamas

In his last Wednesday speech, Nasrallah said that militant leaders from Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Iran, and other Middle Eastern countries are offering to send thousands of fighters to help Hezbollah in the fight against Israel. But, with over 100,000 trained fighters, Hezbollah already holds one of the most potent militant armies in the region.

International government and aid agencies fear a war between Israel and Hezbollah will be more brutal and catastrophic than the Gaza crisis because it could put the entire region into war.

But, while the crippling economy of Lebanon puts Hezbollah at a disadvantage, taking apart the militant group’s military powers in days is a far taller task. Since the Israel-Lebanon war, both sides have been preparing for a chance to settle scores.

Hezbollah’s arsenal includes at least 150,000 missiles and rockets. With over 100,000 fighters, the group’s sophisticated attacks – like the largest rocket attack on 5th July – even surprised Israeli officials. They have shot down top-of-the-line Israeli drones and hit the Iron Dome batteries and anti-drone defenses.

Last month, the Iran-backed group shocked the world when it published drone footage of Israel’s highly sensitive public and military infrastructure. The most astonishing of which is Israel’s secret nuclear base.

The International Response to the Israel-Hezbollah Tensions

With the escalations only increasing, an all-out war can even drag the US into conflict with Iran. It could set the entire region on fire. That’s why the United States has drawn a red line on Hezbollah with a warning. It said the group should not assume that the US can stop Israel from attacking them.

And while the warning is conveyed indirectly because America doesn’t engage with the military group one-on-one, the message from the US officials is clear. The warning aims to get Hezbollah to back down. The officials also declared the US’s support to Israel in case Hezbollah retaliates.

After weeks of silence, Iran has warned Israel of an “obliterated war.” The escalating tension is also worrying the international community. This week, Germany, Canada, and the Netherlands immediately urged their citizens to leave Lebanon. Many are re-routing their flights into Lebanon and warning travelers to “strongly reconsider” traveling to the conflicted country.

The world is trying to slow down the tension, but the escalation is only spiraling to a new height in recent weeks as Israel’s attack on Hamas intensifies.

The Brewing Israel-Hezbollah War

Israel has effectively lost sovereignty in the northern part of the country due to consistent cross-border attacks by the group. The statement came before the Thursday attack where Hezbollah fired 200 rockets into the Israeli border – making it the biggest attack in the monthlong conflict. An Aljazeera report showed that since 7th October the two sides have shared 7400 attacks.

Israeli defense minister Yoav Gallant said that while the country is trying to prevent a wider war, its military is capable of getting “Lebanon back to the stone age.” The statement came as Israel is downshifting its military in Gaza and refocusing its resources on the northern Israel-Lebanon border.

But, while both countries do not want a full-scale war, in case a ceasefire deal fails in Gaza, a large-scale Israel-Hezbollah war can break out in the next several weeks – one that’ll be far worse than the last time around.

Despite Lebanon’s economic and security problems, an extremist Christian group has emerged.

Many Lebanese people had questions about who these people were, who financed them, and what their agenda was, with supporters and opponents divided.

who are “Soldiers of God”?

A group of young men calling themselves “Soldiers of God” march out against the Lebanese with swords, sharpened crosses, uniform black clothing, and religious hymns and prayers in the Achrafieh district of Beirut.

As a result, there were many questions about their identity, tendencies, ideas, beliefs, goals, and supporters, with very few answers, which exacerbated the ambiguity and general suspicion.

In the Achrafieh region, on the tenth of December, a dispute took place in Sassine Square between a group of young men from outside the Christian-majority region, who arrived on motorcycles flying Moroccan, Palestinian, and Syrian flags to celebrate the victory of the Moroccan national team and its qualifying for the World Cup semi-finals.

Also Read: Death is chasing Lebanon: A new catastrophe took place!

Soon, the celebration turned into launching religious and sectarian slogans of an Islamic nature, which provoked some Christian youths in the region, leading to a major conflict and disagreement in which the “Soldiers of God” emerged after some of them intervened, before the military and security forces separated the combatants.

A Prelude to Civil War

A report by the Army Intelligence indicated that members of a group calling itself “Soldiers of God” rose that night in the “Tayouneh crime”, on October 15, 2021, when members of the Lebanese Forces opened fire on demonstrators, killing seven and wounding dozens.

To ratchet up sectarian tensions, crosses and religious slogans were drawn and written in several eastern neighborhoods before the ambush. Social media incitement was there at the same time.

 According to the records, many of them deployed and “are on alert without visible weapons” at several points.

Also read: The Church in Lebanon defends normalization in the name of religion

The documents also listed the names of members of this gang who took part in the shooting and revealed their connections to and funding from Anton Sehnaoui, the chairman of the Societe Générale Bank’s board of directors.

Christian soldiers are closer than the security forces

A woman was robbed in Achrafieh, B according to a deputy in Parliament, who claimed that after she went to the Achrafieh police station to report the crime, the soldiers of God showed up at her house and, when she asked how they knew, said that the police station had informed them of the incident.

According to a statement,No contact was received in this regard from a woman with any of the Achrafieh, Gemmayzeh, and Al-Nahar factions.

Also, the last two factions have moved since 11-25-2022 to another building due to maintenance work in the old building as a result of the Beirut port explosion, and until this moment, work is underway to install landline phone numbers in these two factions.

Also Read: Lebanon’s ‘Deliberate depression’

The Beirut Police Operations Room after reviewing the recordings did not receive any communication from a woman in this regard.

The agenda of the Soldiers of God comes under the framework of self-protection aimed at renouncing any sect that is outside the Christian sect and does not follow the teachings of the Church, and this may be a precursor to a civil and bloody war in Lebanon, and it is indispensable for it.

Despite six presidential sessions, Lebanon still does not have a president.

The funny thing is, the government is also idle and the whole country is waiting for a miracle to get up again.

France is on the president line!

The head of the Free Patriotic Movement, Representative Gebran Bassil, is expected to visit Paris, which is expected to mark a remarkable development in the presidential file in Lebanon.

The meetings will aim to discuss the imminent presidential, governmental, and economic entitlements of all Lebanese stakeholders.

Based on Basil’s excellent relationship with Maronite Patriarch Bechara Al-Rahi and Hezbollah, the French hope to agree on a roadmap for the presidential elections.

Although the French side does not carry an integrated initiative, it sought to know the position of all parties regarding a list of candidates that includes about seven names.

Those connected to the French ambassador understand that her country still has the American mandate to manage the initiative about the presidential file and that Paris wants to reach an agreement with Saudi Arabia that facilitates the task because insisting on fighting harsh battles would prevent the election of a president soon.

President issue: Who does Hezbollah wants?

 Hezbollah is reconsidering the local reality from a different angle than the one that preceded the election of President Aoun, as evidenced by Aoun’s recent paradox of reopening half-closed doors.

In contrast to Aoun, the party does not find any justification for repeating the vacuum for more than two years and tightening its internal domestic rams to deliver its candidate.

They are fully aware that choosing to unilaterally elect a president of the republic, and consequently, a government of one color and the presidency of the House of Representatives, means putting the country in direct conflict with the outside world. Everything that surrounds the internal reality is different from the previous stage, as is the position of the concerned countries.

 While Hezbollah’s opponents are only mentioning Franjieh as president—or, at the very least, any candidate from the party’s second row—this does not imply that Hezbollah has abandoned its candidate or candidates.

The party assumes entering into early settlements, which means that the party receives its price both internally and externally.

This is because the party cannot bear the idea of losing its candidate and will not bear the idea of any settlement following a vacuum that results in challenges, conditions, and counter conditions.

An alternative situation is possible in addition to that. Except for the March 8 team, there is no president of the country.

Is the former minister Franjieh a serious candidate?

Former Minister Suleiman Franjieh was Hezbollah’s candidate.

Nasrallah’s remarks coincided with a fresh French attempt that started a few days ago to forge an agreement on choosing a new president before the year is up and included pledges to start aid programs for Lebanon, including the “Cedre” program.

The debate that the French began with the major parties in Lebanon is anticipated to be finished with Washington and Riyadh and is predicated on the premise that no one can impose a prime minister or president of the republic without a genuine agreement between the major forces.

Hezbollah claimed in 2016 that there was no Plan B for the nomination of General Michel Aoun, and it repeated that claim this time as well: the candidate is Franjieh, and there is a point on the line.

 If the two allies cannot agree on a second candidate, there are dangers that no one has the luxury of incurring.

What does The Free Patriotic Movement says?

 The Free Patriotic Movement was informed by Hezbollah that the results of naming places below the presidency of the Republic under the General Michel Aoun administration were not encouraging, as the residents of these sites turned against the people who named them to them.

There is a “term” that Hezbollah agreed to, though, which is that it will not attend the election session for the Marada Movement’s leader until he has Basil’s endorsement in his pocket.

The party’s desire to maintain and strengthen the agreement with the Free Patriotic Movement is the most crucial factor, and as a result, “the election of Suleiman will be with Gibran’s consent and not at his expense,” among other factors, including giving Franjieh Christian support that makes him a strong president.

So far, there has not been any serious president, and we are facing many sessions without a result.

Is Lebanon on a date with a long presidential debate, as happened before the election of former President Michel Aoun, or will we witness the election of a president before the New Year?