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The Shrinking Global Economy, Back-up Plans?

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Economy graph during Coivd-19

In early March, the Institution for International Finance pre-assumed that due to COVID-19; the global economy will face a steep fall of up to 1%. On the second of April, the United Nations officially announced the shrinking of the global economy almost by 0.9%.

An unpredictable international health emergency never has been seen before in the history of mankind; a global pandemic that has taken the world by storm. Millions were infected and thousands died in 200 countries and territories; COVID19 has led to a human tragedy in unimaginable proportion and disrupted the colossal public health disaster.

United Nation

United Nations, before the pandemic, predicted 2.5% economic growth in 2020 at a modest pace. But due to the attack of a novel coronavirus, a reversal form of growth will take place; in the form of degrading of the global economy by 0.9%.

It also showed concern that it may fall further if the restrictions in the defining economic sectors kept extended; without any proper backup plans.

Fear of Unemployment due to Global Economy Recession

UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs dictated a certainty of millions of workers losing their jobs due to the pandemic. The small and marginal scale employees are at the brink of losing their jobs. International Monetary Fund (IMF) 2020 and 2021 said that due to the pandemic there would be an estimated loss of $9 trillion.

World Trade Organisation 2020 expresses the certainty of a 13-32% decline in world trade and good 2020. But above this, the kind of unemployment that will be seen in the post-COVID era will be vulnerable and will require huge efforts on part of the government to again come back to the state where their workforce previously was.

Most of the trade sectors in developing countries are directly linked with micro, small and medium enterprises. So it can be very easily guessed how adversely this economic recession is going to impact trades caused by the disruption in production.

How is this Recession different from any other?

In a normal recession economic activities fall; it is not as bad as this one. This recession is collapsing both demand and supply. Since we can no longer produce, the output supply chain is shattered by the coronavirus. It means people lose their jobs therefore demand falls and people can no longer pay their mortgage & their rents.

Economist expects this to be a V shape recession but that is just 30% thought. There is a 5-10% certainty it to be an L shape; i.e. it is going to take a very long time. And hosting this outbreak has delivered us the fastest, deepest economic shock in history.

Central banks and Governments are throwing trillions at the pandemic. unlike other recession which was caused due to the laws of motion of the economy, this recession is caused by a virus. This recession is primarily due to the fear of life. Every section of society is affected and is scared of it; from the most privileged to the most deprived.

How good Government has been at containing it?

Before this pandemic, Countries faced a financial crisis, the Eurozone crisis, the great recession of 2009, and now, the virus adding more and more to make the situation worst. Central banks and governments have been carrying out stimulus policies to shore up the economies against pandemic

There isn’t that coordination at the international level between various governments, of the nature that we saw in 2008.

https://browzy.com/2020/05/05/has-western-concept-of-democracy-succeeded-in-controlling-the-coronavirus-pandemic/

After Maths Post-Pandemic and Global Economy

The worst-case scenario predicted by DESA and WTO global trade can fall maximum by 32%. Post-pandemic, countries will try to rebuild themselves; accelerating the speed of growth, first inside the country than with the rest of the world.

To establish their position on the world economy scale; countries will require a huge number of skilled personnel; and also for their economic growth. This may result in the second round of global integration, after what was seen in the first decade of the 20th century.

A Global problem needs a Global approach

The world has not had a virus that has been this transmissible and this deadly, since the Spanish flu in 1918. After the flu, we constructed this economy in which our production and distribution systems cope with each other; an economy that is so massively interdependent.

The world economic forum says employers it spoke to also weren’t ready. Less than 10% had ever thought about pandemics as part of their current risk scenarios. And the effects of coronavirus can be felt for decades

It could split society further. It could even create sharper inequalities; drive a wedge between rich and poor. A massive increase in homelessness indebtedness, and social conflicts. A much angrier electorate and a much more frustrating public about this; but also a public that recognizes the need to move away from globalization to go back to Import Substitution.

The world will see a measure on a macroeconomic level which we have been unthinkable before. We might see a world of more government intervention, higher inflation rates, and higher interest rates down the road. The world will see more open financing of governments by central banks.

We have to reconsider the entire economic system. This is a wake-up call that technology and digitalization of the economy can help us but presently we are fragile and we are very vulnerable in this respect.

It will take time to recover from that very deep severe global economic crisis. And just hope that economists aren’t right about everything.

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Who is Winning the Microchip War: India or China?

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Semiconductor chip picture by Harrison Broadbent

The world is running out of computer chips. And due to the unprecedented shortage of electric chips and semiconductors, a new microchip war is brewing between the two largest manufacturers: India & China.

But, who is winning it? Here’s an explainer:

The Semiconductor Crisis: Explained

Semiconductors are used to make integrated circuits. These microchips are the lifeblood of all electronic appliances, from smartphones, laptops, and gaming consoles to supercomputers and modern weapons.

Powering the technological evolution over the last two decades, the demand for semiconductors has skyrocketed. However, the 2020 pandemic halted the chips’ manufacturing, sparking a global semiconductor crisis.

The crisis was so bad that Apple lost 6 billion dollars in revenue, Maruti had to cut down 40% of its production, and Mahindra had to cut down 20% of its production. Due to chip shortages, the auto industry has already lost 100 billion dollars in revenue.  

Even though production has resumed, manufacturers are still unable to fill out the shortage caused by COVID.

So, why is there a sudden shortage of semiconductors and their impact on different industries? 

The Rush of people with Electronic Gadgets 

The first reason for the shortage is that the industry had already been growing rapidly and was already on the brink of shortage. According to the semiconductor industry association, more than 100 billion integration circuits are used daily worldwide

<a href="<a href="https://www.freepik.com/free-photo/closeup-electronic-circuit-board-with-cpu-microchip-electronic-components-background_1192899.htm#query=microchip&position=5&from_view=search&track=sph">Image by xb100Closeup of electronic circuit board with CPU microchip electronic components background
Closeup of electronic circuit board with CPU microchip electronic components background

The market is so huge that the industry’s biggest players, including Intel, Micron, Nvidia, and Qualcomm, can’t keep up with the demand, given the enormous size of the market.

The Microchip War & Impact of Covid-19 

Lockdown-induced online work dramatically increased demand for electronic devices. But with the manufacturing and transportation services primarily halted, demands outstripped supply.

Another the reason why the shortage is so difficult to recover is that manufacturing a microchip typically takes more than four months. Additionally, microchip manufacturers need giant factories with dust-free rooms, multi-million-dollar machines, molten tin, and lasers. 

Since manufacturing cannot be increased on such short notice, the wait times for chips increased alarmingly. The situation has worsened so severely that the waiting time spiked from 11.8 weeks in September 2019 to 21 weeks in August 2021

Consequently, the market value of semiconductors grew over 20% ($600 billion) in 2021. 

Hence, the radical difference in supply and demand has turned the table, and this is why companies from various areas across the world from various sectors have started facing production issues.  

The four major industries that have furiously faced the heat of crisis are auto, LED lighting, consumer electronics, and the appliance industries. 

What is the position of India in the semiconductor market? 

Despite homing big heads like Intel, Micron, and Samsung housing and R&D centers in India. India doesn’t have a significant chip manufacturing industry.  

When looked at India’s semiconductor trade situation, India became the 13th largest importer of semiconductor devices in the world in 2020, with $2.38 billion in semiconductor device imports.

And now comes the story’s climax behind the semiconductor war between India and China. 

The terrifying part is that about 68.1% of India’s semiconductors were imported from China in 2020. Followed by 40% in and 26% from Hongkong in 2022.

So, what is India doing to fix the situation and reduce its dependence on China? And How is India indirectly in the position of war with China in the semiconductor industry?

India Vs. China: The Microchip War

The roots of India & China’s microchip war can be traced back to the Quad Summit.

During the quad summit conference held by US president Joe Biden on the 24th of September 2021 debated on how to tackle several aspects of economic challenges that come through different countries’ economic development. And one such aspect was the semiconductor shortage in the world.  

Quad Summit

Long story short, chip manufacturing is a complex process requiring multiple steps. So if each country sets up five divisions for five different processes, it is both costly and time-consuming. 

Because of this, India, Australia, Japan, and the US have chosen to work together to execute only those processes that best suit their strengths while transferring the remaining ones to other nations.

That means the US will design the semiconductor; Japan will provide resources to make semiconductor that is raw materials and chemicals like silicon wafers and ICs. While Australia will come up with an electronic supply chain as it has access to critical materials and advanced mining.  

Meanwhile, India has many skilled engineers and laborers for cheap assembling and manufacturing. 

So, in the quad summit US, Japan, Australia, and India joined hands to build a robust semiconductor supply chain based on their strength to eliminate their dependence on China, Hongkong, and Taiwan. 

Thus India’s INR 76000 cores production incentives program is indirectly threatening Chinas mega semiconductor chip industry.

Will the Microchip Program Really Benefit India?

The US is very well aware of future weapons and is acting smartly to overcome China in supercomputing and AI tech. That’s why the US wants semiconductor technology to be kept away from the hands of China. 

Hence in October 2022 US banned all semiconductor exports to China. Alongside baning all the technologies that China can use against the US. 

The US does not want China to develop weapons that may use against the US military. Consequently, fostering India to come up with semiconductor manufacturing to cut the wings of China in the field of making chips.

As discussed above, the US is king in designing the chips, but with sanctions on exporting any such technology from the US, China will face heat.  

While the US has joined hands in the quad summit to design semiconductors for India, here comes the answer to that incentive program. 

Is India Winning the Microchip Chip War?

Over the next two years, the Indian government plans to establish 20 semiconductor plants. To tackle the shortage of semiconductor Government of India has lined -up with attractive incentive support for companies engaged in silicon conductors, photonics, semiconductor packaging, compound semiconductor manufacturing, sensors fabs, and semiconductor design

Moreover, India is also tying up with Taiwan and encouraging semiconductor companies to manufacture semiconductors in India by providing land at affordable prices for their setup.

India is in an overstated circumstance where it is a semiconductor-importing nation and is about to switch to a semiconductor-exporting nation. Here is some heat in China. And that sparks an unintentional semiconductor war between China and India

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The UK Economy Braces for 2-Year Long Recession: What Went Wrong?

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Rishi Sunak

The UK economy is witnessing one of the worst crises in its history. The downfall of the pound, war-infused energy crisis, skyrocketing electricity bills, collapsing stock market, changing Prime ministers, and whatnot?

Nothing has gone in the UK’s favor since the passing of the Queen. And now the country is bracing for a prolonged two-year recession with contracting third quarters.

But what went wrong in the first place? How did this trigger an economic catastrophe in the UK? And can Rishi Sunak save the UK?

Here is a detailed explainer:

UK Economy: An Overview of the Problem

With the political upheaval and the pandemic, the already suffering economy of the UK reached its brim when the Russia-Ukraine war ignited. 

In response to Ukraine’s invasion, Britain halted the import of fuel, gas, or coal from Russia since June for the first time in the past 25 years.  

As a result, Russia stopped its critical gas pipeline to Europe, thus creating an energy crisis. 

All this led to the UK’s economic downfall. 

Today, inflation is at an all-time high of 9.9%, a 40-year high. Energy bills are shot up by almost 80%despite capping. Finally, and most importantly, the pound has become one of the worst-performing currencies, with its value dropping by 24% against the dollar.  

The Mini Budget Turmoil 

With such disruptive environments in the UK, former Prime Minister Liz Truss came up with the mini-budget. The mini-budget baskets a slew of tax changes, including the elimination of the high rate of income tax for the wealthy and the energy subsidies policy platform. 

However, the mini-budget backfired and now has snowballed from an energy crisis into debt, housing, currency, and even a banking crisis. 

The pointer mentioned in the mini-budget has been so terrifying that it shook the economy of the UK and plunged the London Stock Exchange horribly. 

With such an unstable situation inside the UK economy, Truss changed her mind about company taxes after days of adamantly defending her budget and firing finance Minister Kwarteng. 

“I still agree with my policies, but I’ve sacked my finance minister because he announced them, and the market didn’t like them.” 

She said 

A Cold and Long Winters Awaits the UK

The three major events that make the incoming winter snug for the UK are:

  • First, Russia has entirely cut off gas, which causes the cost of electricity to shoot up by almost 80%
  • Secondly, on top of the existing gas storage, the incoming winter energy consumption is about to hit a new peak from September to December. 
  • Third, even if Europe had 90% of its Energy storage complete in September 2022, it could take only 90 days for it to reach dangerously low levels. 

Long story short, a gas shortage during a peak consumption time, with no storage option, will further increase energy prices. It has already been shot up at extreme levels resulting in high electricity bills that eventually heated inflation and the economy of the UK. 

Even though the UK is receiving help from the US and other countries, gas prices are still very high. Hence the cost of production and inflation has hit a record 9.9%.  

“It is going to be tough. But protecting the vulnerable – and people’s jobs, mortgages, and bills – will be at the front of our minds as we work to restore stability, confidence, and long-term growth,”

British finance minister Jeremy Hunt twitted

Bond Market Crisis with Collapsing Pound 

The UK’s property market, pension industry, and overall economy are at risk of recession. The reason behind this is the decline in the price of UK government bonds and the ensuing rise in interest rates. 

10-year bond rates in the UK have gone above almost 300%, going from just about 1% to 4.11% in just nine months. 

Even though the bonds yield a 4% interest, the currency has depreciated to such an extent that it has become a disaster for foreign investors. As a result, foreign investors are quitting the UK market, further decreasing the demand for the pound. 

Such a crisis in the bond market resulted in currency depreciation further, and the sterling slid against the US dollar. Furthermore, during the Ukraine-Russia war, Russia cut off gas supplies, and oversized reliance on imports further surge Euro.   

Rishi, the Third Prime Minister in Three Months 

After the resignation of Boris Johnson with 27 ministers, the office was handed over to Liz Truss. When Boris left the office, there was a sensation in the UK that it was time for stability and competence.

However, due to poor politics and policies, Liz Truss abruptly resigned from the post of Prime Minister within 45 days. The shortest and most disastrous spell that slung the economy of the UK and crashed the pound forced Liz Truss to step down from the post. 

With the resignation of Liz Truss, the reign was entrusted to Rishi Sunak, the third PM of the UK in the last three months. Sunak’s appointment ended another period of political unrest in the UK. 

But many analysts and Westminster observers are still of the opinion that there will soon be another crisis. With the opposition Labor Party presently leading in the polls, all opposition parties are pleading for a general election.

Can Rishi Sunak Save UK Economy?

The political unpredictability has led the UK economy into a two-year-long recession. The previous two prime ministers were unqualified to steer the UK economy’s flimsy ship. Hence Rishi has some challenging tasks to do. 

Now, everything will depend on how Rishi approaches the challenging work of rescuing the UK economy from disaster, and it will be interesting to watch how he advances.

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Muslim Women’s Empowerment and Inheritance Rights 

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Muslim Women's Inheritance Rights

Despite Islam giving Muslim women the right to inheritance, it is rare to see Muslims follow this Islamic law.  The recently released National Family Health Survey 2019-20 (NFHS-5) fact sheet for Jammu and Kashmir states that only 57.3% of women in the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir own a house and/or land, alone or jointly (PDF of the survey). J and K is a Muslim-majority region. According to 2011 census, 68.3% of the region’s population is Muslim. 

Even though we can read these figures as “at least more than half women own property”, however, given that all women are coparceners in one or the other way, it raises vexing questions.

Islam entitles a sister to inherit half of what a brother gets as a coparcener. Despite this fact, the number of women owning property is almost half of that of men.

The data on women’s inheritance in Pakistan and other Muslim-majority South Asian countries is much worse. There are very few women who own property in South Asian countries.

Inheritance Rights, a Taboo?

Women asking for their coparcenary rights is considered taboo here. Further, women also seem to have internalized that asking for inheritance rights will break their relationship with other members of the family, especially brothers. As a result, they sign relinquishment deeds without giving a second thought about it.

Also Read: Death of Mahsa Amini: How Governments are Denying Women’s Right to Choice?

Women’s Empowerment through Inheritance

People mostly see the inheritance of property as a matter of money and wealth. However, it goes beyond that, at least for women. Economically speaking, ownership of any kind of property by women is a very important determinant in the quest for women’s empowerment.

In a realist world where everyone is responsible for their own survival, women should not expect their male relatives to care for them. Unless women do not attach economical value to their lives, they will have no power. This is especially true for unemployed women who do not have financial independence. Since inheritance of property is a given- however small value it may have, they do not have to get an education or work to get it. The only thing they need to do is not to sign the relinquishment deed.

Also Read: Why Are Muslim Women Still Behind Bars

Militating Against Women’s Empowerment

Relinquishment of coparcenary rights militates against women’s empowerment. It is high time that women ask for the inheritance rights that the constitution as well as the religion gives them. The right to inheritance also seems one of its kind means to women’s empowerment where people peddling religiosity may not find a reason to oppose it. Women should know that signing a relinquishment deed may lose them a lifetime opportunity for leading an independent and respectful life in this patriarchal world.

Also Read: The women behind #Blacklivesmatter movement

The Debate on Equality of Rights

It is generally accepted that Islam entitles a sister to inherit half of what a brother gets as a coparcener. However, the interpretation of the Quran regarding this law is debatable. According to Mohmmad Iqbal, “the share of the daughter is determined not by any inferiority inherent in her, but in view of her economic opportunities, and the place she occupies in the social structure of which she is a part and parcel.” Iqbal goes on to justify the case of inheritance law in Islam arguing that the daughter “is held to be the full owner of the property given to her by both the father and the husband at the time of her marriage.” Further, “she absolutely owns her dower-money which may be prompt or deferred according to her own choice, and in lieu of which she can hold possession of the whole of her husband’s property till payment, the responsibility of maintaining her throughout her life is wholly thrown on the husband.”

Therefore, for Iqbal, if we “judge the working of the rule of inheritance from this point of view, you (we) will find that there is no material difference between the economic position of sons and daughters.”

However, Iqbal made this point in 1930. Since then, there has been a significant change in the economic positions of men and women. If the motive behind inheritance laws, as mentioned by Iqbal, is applied to modern-day conditions, sons and daughters may well get an equal share in inheritance.

Towards Muslim Women’s Empowerment

Inheritance rights bestowed by Islam on Muslim women show Islam’s inherent quest for women’s empowerment.

Even though the West blames Muslims for repressing women’s rights, Islam has its in-built laws for women’s empowerment. These laws, unlike West’s feminist rhetoric, go beyond symbolic empowerment like sartorial choice, and hence materially empower women.

However, it is a shame that Muslims do not follow Islamic laws like inheritance law in letter and spirit. If all Muslims obeyed these laws, the world would become a better place for Muslim women.

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